CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis March 15, 2022

March 15th, 2022 9:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

Feb PPI this morning added more evidence that inflation is continuing to increase, yr./yr. PPI at 10.0% up from 9.7% in Jan; core PPI (ex food and energy) increased to 8.4% from 8.3% in Jan. However, when trade services are included yr./yr. PPI declined to 6.6% from 6.9% in Jan. The takeaway, inflation is still increasing, and the outlook is that it will continue to increase, some expecting inflation will reach 10% before backing off later this year.

Selling was surprisingly strong yesterday in crude, gold and the bond market. This morning some rebound. Yesterday the 10 yr. yield increased 14 bps and MBS prices were down 70 bps. The decline in oil and gold was somewhat expected as the fear over Ukraine didn’t have anything new over the weekend, but the increase in interest rates somewhat a surprise with the FOMC policy statement tomorrow afternoon. In one view it could have signaled the Fed would increase the FF rate by 50 bps, on the other the consensus is still for a 25 bp increase. Crude fell $8.00 yesterday and early this morning down another $7.00, the decline in oil would suggest that less inflation worries are taking hold. The fall in gold prices suggest safety trades are ebbing.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +225, NASDAQ +120, S&P +32. 10 yr. at 9:30 am 2.08% down 6 bps. FNMA 3.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +20 bps and -9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday (on the day yesterday down 73 bps.)

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 2.09% -5 bp

5 yr note: 2.03% -6 bp

2 Yr note: 1.80% -7 bp

30 yr bond: 2.43% -5 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.430%; 3 mo 0.884%; 6 mo 1.175%; 1 yr 1.657% (3/14/22)

30 yr FNMA 3.5: 101.22 +20 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 4.0: 103.27 +20 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 3.5: 102.11 +17 p (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3756 +$0.0102

Dollar/Yen: 117.97 -0.22 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0986 +$0.0045

Dollar Index: 98.78 -0.22

Gold: $1927.10 -$33.70 (high last week $2075.00)

Bitcoin: 38.601 -154

Crude Oil: $96.34 -$6.75 (high last week $130.00)

DJIA: 33,166 +221

NASDAQ: 12,688 +107

S&P 500: 4205 +31

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on March 15th, 2022 9:56 AM



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