March 11th, 2022 9:02 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Biden is set to call for an end of normal trade relations with Russia and joined by the Group of Seven nations and the EU. The EU said last week that it’s seeking to remove Russia’s most-favored nation status, and Canada withdrew the designation for Russia. More strong efforts to squeeze Russia’s economy and force Putin to the table with Ukraine’s Zelensky.
Early trade in the bond market had the 10 yr. up 2 bps from yesterday and MBS prices generally unchanged from yesterday.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +238, NASDAQ +96, S&P +26. 10 yr. note 2.01% +2 bps. FNMA 3.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +6 bps from yesterday’s close and -17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
The only data today, the mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 61.7 from 62.8 in Feb; as reported the index fell to 59.7 as inflation presses on consumers.
Crude oil has stabilized the last couple of days after spiking to $130/barrel last week. The price had almost doubled since mid-Jan when it traded at $68.00/barrel, this morning $106.00/barrel. Gold hit $2025/oz. on Monday, now $1970.00. Stock indexes remain under pressure as the economic outlook is tilted to higher inflation and slowing growth. The key indexes are now in correction areas, down 20%.
We don’t expect much movement today in the rate markets with the FOMC next Wednesday. Based on comments from Fed watchers the Fed will increase the FF rate by 0.25% and not 0.50% that was the consensus a week or two ago. The Fed concerned about not upsetting markets even as inflation outlooks are being revised higher than just three weeks ago, one very influential money manager thinking inflation at 10% before declining by the end of the year.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr note: 2.01% +2 bp
5 yr note: 1.94% +2 bp
2 Yr note: 1.75% +5 bp
30 yr bond: 2.38% +1 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.387%; 3 mo 0.803%; 6 mo 1.103%; 1 yr 1.535% (3/10/22)
30 yr FNMA 3.0: 99.69 -9 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr FNMA 3.5: 101.83 -5 bp (-17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr GNMA 3.0: 100.77 -8 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.3390 +$0.0171
Dollar/Yen: 116.92 +0.79 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0983 -$0.0006
Dollar Index: 98.61 +0.10
Gold: $1976.30 -$24.10
Bitcoin: 39,395 +92
Crude Oil: $107.50 +$1.48
DJIA: 33,315 +141
NASDAQ: 13,093 -37
S&P 500: 4263 +4
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.