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Daily Market Analysis March 1, 2022

March 1st, 2022 9:03 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

The sanctions on Russia are already taking their toll on the Russian economy, interest rates increased to 20% to defend the Ruppel, inflation running at double digits, oligarchs starting to squeal as on media source commented. Crude oil over $100.00 this morning, gold up $15.00 and bitcoin continuing to gain on Russian buying. Early this morning the 10 yr note dropped to 1.72% -12 bps from yesterday and down 25 bps since last Friday.

Interest rates continue to fall as safety moves into treasuries and the increasing belief now that the Fed will increase the FF rate by just 25 bps at the FOMC meeting. Swaps linked to the Fed’s March 16 meeting priced in just 24.5 basis points of tightening yesterday. That suggests an unusually large half-point hike -- which was all but fully priced last month amid concern over accelerating inflation -- is now off the table. Equity markets continue daily volatility; yesterday the DJIA started 436 lower, by the end of the day down just 166, NASDAQ yesterday actually improved, this morning in pre-open trading the indexes were lower but not by much.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -164, NASDAQ -42, S&P -12. 10 yr 1.78% -5 bp. FNMA 3.5 30 yr coupon at 9:30 am +22 bps from yesterday’s close and 44 bps better than 9:30 am yesterday.

It is all about safety now, treasury rates are falling (the 10 yr down 26 bps over the last two weeks). Last week the key stock indexes ended about unchanged for the week after swings as much as 900 points seen on the DJIA. Ukraine very uncertain, will Putin blink or will be crush Ukraine citizens with massive attacks that up until now have been selective? How much pain will Russian citizens tolerate? Many educated opinions circulating but at the end of the day it remains uncertain and only Putin can cool the temperature. His commitment to control Ukraine would be a big pill for him to swallow if unsuccessful.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 1.77% -6 bp

5 yr note: 1.63% -9 bp

2 Yr note: 1.37% -7 bp

30 yr bond: 2.15% -1 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.241%; 3 mo 0.504%; 6 mo 0.805%; 1 yr 1.288% (2/28/22)

30 yr FNMA 3.0: @9:30 101.30 +23 bp (+45 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 3.5: @9:30 103.02 +22 bp (+44 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 3.0: @9:30 101.81 +11 bp (+34 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3113 +$0.0020

Dollar/Yen: 114.89 -0.08 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1155 -$0.0065

Dollar Index: 97.06 +0.36

Gold: $1924.80 +$24.10

Bitcoin: 43,944 +2,232

Crude Oil: $102.12 +$6.35

DJIA: 33,677 -215

NASDAQ: 13,730 -21

S&P 500: 4359 -15

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on March 1st, 2022 9:03 AM

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