CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis January 25, 2022

January 25th, 2022 10:20 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

Today the FOMC meeting gets under way with markets hoping, expecting more specifics frm the Fed on its tightening schedule in the coming months. We won’t know anything today, at 2:00 pm tomorrow the Fed will release the policy statement then Jerome Powell’s press conference. Markets expect the unwinding of the Fed’s support but as is normal ahead of an FOMC meeting uncertainty increases. Four rate increases this year and unwinding the balance sheet is what has been telegraphed by most every Fed member the last few weeks.

Treasury will auction $55B of 5 yr notes at 1:00 pm ET this afternoon.

At 9:00 am this morning Nov Case/Shiller and FHFA home price indexes. Case/Shiller expected +1.0%, as reported +1.2%, yr/yr +18.3%. FHFA expected +1.0%, as reported +1.1%, yr/yr +17.5%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened –350, NASDAQ -219, S&P -57. 10 yr 1.75% -2 bp. FNMA 3.0 30 yr coupon +5 bps from yesterday’s close.

At 10:00 am the Jan consumer confidence index from the Conference Board was expected at 111.9 from 115.8 from Dec; as reported the index was 113.8. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 148.2 from 144.8 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 90.8 from 95.4.

Early this morning the 10 yr rate increased to 1.79% but quickly retreated to 1.75% by 8:30 am. Volatility high with the chaos in the stock market; through the day the stock indexes are unreliable until the final hour (3:00 pm to 4:00 pm). Interest rates today not likely to move much with the FOMC looming tomorrow afternoon. Since the beginning of January until last Wednesday the 10 yr note yield ran from 1.55% to 1.90%, since last Wednesday the note has corrected and consolidated at tis morning’s 1.75%, that is volatility and has roiled the MBS market and mortgage lenders. We expect that kind of volatility for the rest of the week. So far, we don’t see the US markets acting in any way over the Russian/Ukraine tensions. The US and NATO increasing support for Ukraine, US putting 8500 troops on high alert but unless NATO engages militarily the US can’t employ troops on its own.

As noted last week, the recent increase in rates across the yield curve have increased to discount at least one FF rate increase and possibly two increases. Interest rates will likely stabilize now unless the Fed adds more aggressive signals. For the 10 1.70% should hold any declines while 1.85% on the upside should hold any increase. 10 yr so far this morning.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 1.73% -4 bp

5 yr note: 1.52% -3 bp

2 Yr note: 0.99% unch

30 yr bond: 2.08% -4 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.108%; 3 mo 0.248%; 6 mo 0.449%; 1 yr 0.793% (1/24/22)

30 yr FNMA 3.0: 102.27 +5 bp (+11 bps at 10:00 am)

30 yr FNMA 3.5: 104.33 -9 bp

30 yr GNMA 3.0: 102.19 +5 bp

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3290 -$0.0018

Dollar/Yen: 113.88 -0.10 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1278 -$0.0048

Dollar Index: 96.20 +0.28

Gold: $1840.80 -$0.90

Bitcoin: 36,638 +6

Crude Oil: $83.72 +$0.40

DJIA: 33,706 -658

NASDAQ: 13,491 -364

S&P 500: 4301.-109

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on January 25th, 2022 10:20 AM



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