CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis February 25, 2022

February 25th, 2022 8:53 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

More volatility early this morning, prior to 8 am ET the US stock indexes were trading lower after the huge swings yesterday. Very early this morning the 10 yr. yield fell to 1.94% -3 bps, on the news the note increased to 2.02% +5 bps. At 8:30 am MBS prices 17 bps lower than yesterday.

8:30 am data; Jan personal income was thought to be -0.3%, income was unchanged from Dec, personal spending expected +1.5% increased 2.1%. Jan PCE data; m/m +0.6% as expected but up from 0.4% in Dec, yr./yr. also as expected +6.1% but increased from 5.8% in Dec. Core PCE m/m +0.5% as expected and unchanged from Dec, yr./yr. +5.2% as expected but up from 4.9% in Dec. Inflation continues to edge higher. Jan durable goods orders expected +0.5% increased 1.6%; ex transportation orders +0.7% od estimates of +0.3%. Dec revisions: new orders revised to +1.2% from -0.9%, ex transportation revised from +0.4% to +0.9%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +141 after trading down 130 prior to 8:30 am. Early today the 10 traded at 2.02% then slipped to 1.94% and at 9:30 am 1.99% +2 bp. MBS prices were down 17 bps at 8:30 am, at 9:30 am unchanged from yesterday and -3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

A spokesman for the IEA commenting this morning the oil supplies and movements have not been disrupted so far. The IEA is scheduled to meet later to discuss oil supplies and uses of reserves if necessary.

Two releases at 10 am; Jan pending home sales and the U. of Michigan final Feb consumer sentiment index. Pending home sales were expected to have increased 0.8% after declining 3.8% in Dec, as reported sales were plunged 5.7%; Dec revised to -2.3% from -3.8%. U. of Michigan sentiment index expected at 61.7 jumped to 62.8. We will have more detail this afternoon.

There is a lot ahead for this weekend, what happens in Ukraine will set the tone next Monday. Yesterday three Fed officials were confirming the Fed would increase rates at the March FOMC meeting, whether 25 or 50 bps is still up in the air and likely won’t clear until it is, at the meeting.

PRICES @ 10:10 AM

10 yr note: 1.98% +1 bp

5 yr note: 1.89% +2 bp

2 Yr note: 1.60 %+2 bp

30 yr bond: 2.28% unch

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.209%; 3 mo 0.508%; 6 mo 0.804%; 1 yr 1.28% (2/24/22)

30 yr FNMA 3.0: @9:30 100.25 +2 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 3.5: @9:30 102.36 unch (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 3.0: @9:30 101.05 +5 bp (+25 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3152 -$0.0140

Dollar/Yen: 115.52 -0.02 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1239 +$0.0044

Dollar Index: 96.83 -0.31

Gold: $1891.60 -$34.70

Bitcoin: 39,272 +826

Crude Oil: $91.83 -$0.98

DJIA: 33,349 +125

NASDAQ: 13,393 -80

S&P 500: 4289 +0.78

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on February 25th, 2022 8:53 AM



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