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Daily Market Analysis February 18, 2022

February 18th, 2022 9:09 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

This morning the 10 yr note began down 1 bps and MBS prices unchanged. Stock indexes tried to do better but slipped back as more Russia news weighs heavy on markets. Bloomberg News: The U.S. said Russia has massed as many as 190,000 personnel – including troops, National Guard units and Russian-backed separatists – in and around Ukraine in what it called the most significant military mobilization since World War II. Russia told the U.S. this week that it has no plans to attack, and officials in Moscow have repeatedly dismissed U.S. warnings about a possible invasion as “hysteria” and propaganda. U.S. President Joe Biden will speak with transatlantic leaders on Friday about the Kremlin’s troop movements. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will also talk to his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin by phone, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Europe next week.

Meanwhile shelling intensified in eastern Ukraine, with Kyiv saying its troops have been issued orders to exercise restraint in responding to artillery fire to not give Russia a pretext to invade. Heavy artillery, tank and mortar exchanges picked up Friday morning all along the cease-fire line separating the Ukrainian-controlled two-thirds of Donetsk and Luhansk from Russian-held areas, according to accounts from both sides. Violence in the regions had increased dramatically Thursday, with shells hitting a kindergarten and a school in Ukrainian-controlled towns.

In other news, not market concerning; The Senate passed a stopgap bill keeping the government funded beyond Friday after Democrats beat back measures related to drug paraphernalia and Covid-19 vaccine mandates, paving the way for President Biden to sign the measure into law. The continuing resolution approved Thursday would fund the government through March 11.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -37, NASDAQ +20, S&P +5. 10 yr 1.94% -3 bp. FNMA 3.5 30 yr coupon at 9:30 am +2 bps and +17 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10:00 am Jan existing home sales and Jan leading economic indicators. Existing home sales were expected at 6.088 mil frm 6.10 mil, as reported +6.50 mil, up 6.7% but -2.3% yr/yr . We will have details this afternoon. Leading indicators expected +0.3%, as reported -0.3%.

Three Fed officials today; at 10:15 am Chicago’s Charles Evens, at 11:00 am John Williams, New York, at 1:30 pm Lael Brainard Fed Board of Governors.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 1.95% -2 bp

5 yr note: 1.84% -1 bp

2 Yr note: 1.49% +2 bp

30 yr bond: 2.27% -2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.162%; 3 mo 0.481%; 6 mo 0.774%; 1 yr 1.189% (2/17/22)

30 yr FNMA 3.0: @9:30 100.44 +3 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 3.5: @9:30 102.59 +2 bp (+17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 3.0: @9:30 100.89 -3 bp (-19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3261 -$0.0123

Dollar/Yen: 114.99 +0.06 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1342 -$0.0019

Dollar Index: 95.94 +0.14

Gold: $1899.30 -$2.60

Bitcoin: 39,673 -1322

Crude Oil: $89.564 -$2.12

DJIA: 34,361 +50

NASDAQ: 13,752 +36

S&P 500: 4393 +13

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on February 18th, 2022 9:09 AM

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