CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis February 16, 2022

February 16th, 2022 10:13 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

Jan retail sales were better than forecasts; expected +2.0% sales increased 3.8%, excluding autos expected +1.1% increased 3.3%. Sales were the best since last March as Americans kept spending through a Covid-19 spike and hot inflation to help drive the economic recovery. Eight of the 13 retail categories rose in the month. Sales at non-store retailers surged 14.5% after plummeting in December. Motor vehicle sales rose 5.7% following a decline in the prior month. Home furnishing stores also posted a solid sales advance.

Jan import and export prices continue to increase; import prices thought to be +1.3% increased 2.0%, yr/yr expected 10.2% increased 10.8%. Export prices expected +0.7% jumped 2.9%, yr/yr +15.1% against estimates of 14.6%.

At 9:00 am ET the 10 yr note yield 2.01% -4 bps.

At 9:15 am Jan industrial production was expected +0.4%, it increased 1.4%; factory use also bested estimates of 76.7% t0 77.6% the best for the last 12 months.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -97 after increasing 423 yesterday, NASDAQ -111, S&P -17. 10 yr note 2.02% -3 bps. FNMA 3.5 30 yr coupon at 9:30 am +14 bps and +10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10:00 am NAHB released its Feb housing market index, expected unchanged at 83, as released 82.

At 1:00 pm Treasury will auction $19B of 20 yr bonds.

Early this morning MBA reported mortgage applications last week dropped 5.4% frm the prior week; purchase apps -1.0% wile re-finances fell 9.0%.

The key today comes this afternoon at 2:00 pm when the minutes from the Jan FOMC meeting will be released. Everyone looking for possible clues whether the Fed will go 50 basis points or stick with 25 points. Another Fed official, Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren admitting the Fed is way behind the curve on removing stimulus.

Russia/Ukraine continue to roil markets; yesterday markets saw some possible light, today not so much. Global stock rallies stalled this morning as traders struggled to evaluate the risk of geopolitical tensions. The Biden administration said it’s still possible that Russia will invade Ukraine because its troops remain in a “threatening position,” while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels that Russia is continuing its military buildup. Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans to invade its neighboring country.

It is a key debate now, 50 or 25. Every time we see forecasts from money managers, hedge funds and Wall Street we come away with little conviction; for us, we still hold the Fed will increase 50 bps and that is already built into present levels.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 2.03% -2 bp

5 yr note: 1.91% -3 bp

2 Yr note: 1.55% -2 bp

30 yr bond: 2.34% -2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.120%; 3 mo 0.469%; 6 mo 0.792%; 1 yr 1.342% (2/15/22)

30 yr FNMA 3.0: @9:30 100.19 +16 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 3.5: @9:30 102.46 +14 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 3.0: @9:30 101.02 +16 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3372 -$0.0020

Dollar/Yen: 115.43 -0.16 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1365 +$0.0006

Dollar Index: 95.83 -0.16

Gold: $1864.40 +$8.20

Bitcoin: 43,511 -614

Crude Oil: $93.58 +$1.51

DJIA: 34,798 -191

NASDAQ: 13,954 -185

S&P 500: 4438 -33

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on February 16th, 2022 10:13 AM

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