February 14th, 2022 8:51 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Last Friday the White House rattled markets with comments Russia was about to invade Ukraine; the 10 yr note Friday afternoon dropped from 2.05% to 1.92% within an hour; MBS prices jumped. This morning no follow-through, the 10 yr note 1.97% +4 bp, MBS prices down 23 bps after increasing 52 bps. We continue to warn of excessive volatility and the avoidance of risk. Yesterday Putin countered U.S. warnings that Russia may invade Ukraine within days by staging televised meetings with his foreign and defense ministers that emphasized de-escalation of tensions and continued efforts to find a diplomatic resolution to the security crisis. The comments were the strongest indications yet that the Kremlin will continue talks to ease confrontation in a crisis that’s raised fears of war. Bloomberg reporting Putin speaking to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Monday, Putin said “all right” to a proposal that Russia continue talks with the U.S. and its allies on the security guarantees Moscow has demanded. Shortly afterward, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that some of Russia’s massive military exercises now underway are already concluded, while others will end later. He didn’t specify plans for returning the troops to their bases, but other officials have said they will go back once the operations are over.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -43, NASDAQ -17, S&P -5. 10 yr 1.99% +4 bps. FNMA 3.5 30 yr coupon -33 bps from Friday’s close and -13 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
No data today, tomorrow, Jan PPI.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr note: 1.99% +5 bp
5 yr note: 1.92% +5 bp
2 Yr note: 1.60% +9 bp
30 yr bond: 2.30% +4 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.191%; 3 mo 0.596%; 6 mo 0.840%; 1 yr 1.392% (2/11/22)
30 yr FNMA 3.0: @9:30 100.16 -39 bp (-17 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 yr FNMA 3.5: @9:30 102.50 -33 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 yr GNMA 3.0: @9:30 100.83 -45 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.3556 +$0.0010
Dollar/Yen: 115.45 unch
Dollar/Euro: $1.1329 -$0.0020
Dollar Index: 96.31 +0.23
Gold: $1863.60 +$21.50
Bitcoin: 42,592 +281
Crude Oil: $92.77 -$0.33
DJIA: 34,457 -170
NASDAQ: 13,832 +41
S&P 500: 4409 -10
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.