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Daily Market Analysis December 8, 2022

December 8th, 2022 9:14 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

This morning at 8:30 am ET weekly jobless claims; expected 228K increased 230K +4K from the previous week. The 4 week average at 230K from 229K the week before. There was no reaction to the number, close to what markets were expecting.

In pre-open trading this morning stock indexes higher after a flat day yesterday.

There isn’t any news this morning that directly impact US financial markets. Recent comments from the big financial institutions that the economy will weaken next year with the increasing potential of recession is pushing investors to treasury debt. The 10 yield down 80 bps over the last month, mortgage rates down about the same.

One week from today the FOMC policy statement, Powell’s press conference and the Fed’s quarterly forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Markets thinking about what the statement and Powell will say. The recent declines suggest investors expect the Fed to be more conservative in increasing rates, believing the Fed will back off its tough stance given the increasing concerns of recession next year. If Powell continues his strong stand to cool inflation regardless of recent negative comments from big banks, interest rates will turn up. Under the surface traders are leaning toward the Fed and Powell to relent.

Inflation peaked three months ago but still well above what the Fed says it wants. Tomorrow Nov PPI yr./yr. expected at 7.2% from 8.0% in October; core PPI yr./yr. 5.9% from 6.7%. Next Tuesday Nov CPI, the day prior to the beginning of the FOMC meeting.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +110, NASDAQ +52, S&P +18. 10 yr. 3.49% +7 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -20 bps and -23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 3.48% +6 bp

5 yr note: 3.70% +8 bp

2 Yr note: 4.30% +3 bp

30 yr bond: 3,45% +2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 4.236%; 3 mo 4.723%; 6 mo 5.172%; 1 yr 5.524% (12/7/22)

30 yr FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.05 -28 bp (-42 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.13 -20 bp (-23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.78 -17 bp (-30 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.9691 -$0.0044

Dollar/Yen: 136.74 +0.13 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0534 +$0.0027

Dollar Index: 105.04 -0.06

Gold: $1798.80 +$0.80

Bitcoin: 16,841 +8

Crude Oil: $73.54 +$1.53 (high this morning $75.25)

DJIA: 33,847 +248

NASDAQ: 11,054 +95

S&P 500: 3963 +29

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on December 8th, 2022 9:14 AM

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