December 3rd, 2020 9:36 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Treasuries and MBSs opened this morning unchanged. At 8:30 am ET, the stock indexes generally unchanged.
Weekly jobless claims were better than forecasts. Claims expected at 780K were 712K down 75K; the four-week average declined to 739.5K from 750.75K. Continuing claims -- the total pool of Americans on state unemployment benefits -- declined 569,000 to 5.52 million in the week. The previous two weeks' claims were slowly increasing. There was no reaction to the better outlook. The figures aren't accurately capturing how many people claim benefits after a government watchdog found the statistics to be "flawed."
A $908B stimulus package offered up by Pelosi yesterday is more than half lower than the $2.4 trillion Democrats had held to since last May. In response, McConnell said he has his own proposal. However, it is about the same as Republicans have held to for months, $500B. The Senate is up in the air; the results of two senate seats in Georgia, if won by Republicans, won't increase Pelosi's leverage (if she has any now). Biden called on Congress to pass a "robust" aid bill without offering specifics of how big it should be or what measures it ought to contain.
At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened +58, NASDAQ +46, S&P +5. 10 yr. at 9:30 am 0.93% -1 bp. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 +5 bps from yesterday and +8 bps from 9:30 yesterday.
At 9:45 am ET, the Nov PMI composite estimate 57.9 from 56.9 in October; as reported, the index increased to 58.6. China's November Caixin Services PMI rose to 57.8 from 56.8 (expected 56.5). Japan's November Services PMI ticked up to 47.8 from 47.7 (expected 46.7). Hong Kong's November Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.8. Germany's November Services PMI fell to 46.0 from 49.5 (expected 46.2). U.K.'s November Services PMI fell to 47.6 from 51.4 (expected 45.8). France's November Services PMI fell to 38.8 from 46.5 (expected 38.0). Italy's November Services PMI fell to 39.4 from 46.7 (expected 41.3). Spain's November Services PMI fell to 39.5 from 41.4 (expected 36.6).
At 10:00 am ET, the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index was expected at 56.0 from 56.6 in October; as released, the index 55.9.
The House and Senate still have to pass a continuing spending bill by Dec 11th, or the government will shut down. Media makes it a potential disaster every time Congress has to kick the can and pass a continuation bill adding enough funds to carry through to the next time it comes up. At the end of the day and before Dec 11th, a deal will get done.
Not many are doing holiday shopping in stores this year; online shopping is a new way, driven by the virus, setting a new path for the future.
Tomorrow, the Nov employment data; today should be quiet ahead of it.
PRICES @ 10:10 AM ET
10 yr. note: 0.93% -1 bp
5 yr. note: 0.40-% -1 bp
2 Yr. note: 0.15% -2 bp
30 yr. bond: 1.67% -2 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.152%; 3 mo. 0.230%; 6 mo. 0.258%; 1 yr. 0.334% (12/02/20)
30 yr. FNMA 2.0: @9:30 103.72 +5 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.83 unch (+6 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 104.91 -12 bp (unch from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.5451 -$0.0183
Dollar/Yen: 103.83 -0.58 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.2158 +$0.0040
Dollar Index: 90.68 -0.44
Gold: $1838.70 +$8.50
Crude Oil: $45.06 -$0.22
DJIA: 29,987 +104
NASDAQ: 12,419 +70
S&P 500: 3675 +6
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.