December 28th, 2021 9:48 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 opened better this morning, down 2 bps from yesterday, stock indexes started better but not much. Yesterday stocks but in another strong session, S&P a new record high, the 69th new high for the index this year.
Two data points today; at 9 am ET October FHFA home price index, expected +0.7%, as reported +1.1%, yr./yr. +17.5% (estimate +16.9%). Case/Shiller October home price index expected +1.0% s reported +0.8%, yr./yr. +18.4%.
No data the rest of the day. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $57B of 5 yr. notes.
Yesterday CDC reduced the recommended isolation period for people infected with Covid-19 (omicron) to five days from 10. The new guidance reflects growing evidence that people with the virus are most infectious one to two days before the onset of symptoms and two to three days afterward. It is still spreading, but deaths are declining (the tally lifted the seven-day average of reported cases to 237,061, just 15,000 less than the pandemic high recorded about a year ago). Covid deaths haven’t significantly increased. The seven-day rolling average of deaths has hovered at about 7,000 since mid-October after falling from a delta-driven peak.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +20, NASDAQ +18, S&P +4 bp. 10 yr. 1.46% -2 bps. FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +9 bps from yesterday and +14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday. MBS prices late yesterday afternoon increased from 4 pm levels by 7 bps.
A couple of big firms are warning of economic slowing and revising their outlook for Q1 2022; all blaming omicron. Goldman saying Q1 GDP at 2.2% down from +5.2% from its previous outlook. A slowing is likely and, in a sense, understandable, omicron is a fast spreader, but it isn’t a death sentence. Q1 will be less than previous forecasts.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr. note: 1.46% -2 bp
5 yr. note: 1.24% -1 bp
2 Yr. note: 0.75% -1 bp
30 yr. bond: 1.86% -3 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.101%; 3 mo. 0.218%; 6 mo. 0.343%; 1 yr. 0.567% (12/27/21)
30 yr. FNMA 3.0: @9:30 am 103.58 +5 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 am 102.17 +9 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 am 102.56 +6 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.3683 -$0.0030
Dollar/Yen: 114.86 -0.02 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1297 -$0.0031
Dollar Index: 96.18 +0.09
Gold: $1815.20 +$6.40
Bitcoin: 49,058 -2,100
Crude Oil: $76.05 +$0.48
DJIA: 36,522 +213
NASDAQ: 15,894 +23
S&P 500: 4805 +14
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.