CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis December 23, 2021

December 23rd, 2021 9:07 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

At 8:30 am ET November personal income and spending, both right of forecasts, income +0.4%, spending +0.6%. PCE as expected; m/m +0.6%, yr./yyr+5.7%, core PCE +0.5% m/m, yr./yr. +4.7%. Weekly jobless claims at 205K as expected. Nov durable goods orders expected +1.5% increased 2.5%, ex transportation thought to be +0.6% increased 0.8%. There was no reaction to the four reports in the interest rate markets but stock indexes moved higher. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, stagnated in November as the fastest price gains in nearly four decades eroded purchasing power. The PCE price gauge, which the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% inflation target, increased 0.6% from a month earlier and 5.7% from November 2020, the highest reading since 1982.

Personal savings rate is declining as prices continue to increase. Adjusted for inflation, disposable personal income, or after-tax income, fell 0.2%, the fourth straight decline. The savings rate -- personal saving as a share of disposable income -- declined to 6.9%, the lowest since December 2017.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +90, NASDAQ +7, S&P +11. 10 yr. note 1.47% +2 bps. FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from yesterday and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. The quiet didn’t last long, by 9:45 am the 10 yr. note traded at 1.49% +4 bps and MBS prices were down 14 bps.

At 10 am Nov new home sales, expected at 770K units, as reported 744K and a big downward revision in October, from 745K to 662K. Also, at 10 am the final Nov U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index expected at 70.4, increased to 70.6.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr. note: 1.49% +4 bp

5 yr. note: 1.24% +2 bp

2 Yr. note: 0.68% +1 bp

30 yr. bond: 1.90% +5 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.103%; 3 mo. 0.211%; 6 mo. 0.326%; 1 yr. 0.553% (12/22/21)

30 yr. FNMA 3.0: @9:45 am 103.48 -6 bp (-8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:45 am 101.94 -14 bp (-11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:45 am 102.41 -12 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3715 +$0.0014

Dollar/Yen: 114.39 +0.37 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1305 -$0.0021

Dollar Index: 96.22 +0.15

Gold: $1800.90 -$1.30

Bitcoin: 48,517 -485

Crude Oil: $72.96 +$0.20

DJIA: 35,958 +204

NASDAQ: 15,566 +46

S&P 500: 4721 +24 (new high)

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on December 23rd, 2021 9:07 AM

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