CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis December 23, 2020

December 23rd, 2020 9:23 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

This morning, a lot of data; by this afternoon, the markets, while still trading, most will be gone until next Monday. Tomorrow the bond and mortgage markets will be open until 2:00 pm ET and the stock market at 1:00 pm.

At 7:00 am ET, weekly MBA mortgage applications; the composite +0.8%, purchase apps -5.0%, refinance apps +4.0%.

At 8:30 am ET, weekly jobless claims 803K on estimates of 875K, -89K and better than 875K estimates, the 4-week average increased 4K. 

Nov durable goods orders were expected +0.6%, they increased 0.9% but when auto sales are subtracted orders were thought to be +0.5% but up 0.4%, core capital goods +0.4% on estimates of 0.6%. The strength was in the revision of October orders; new orders were revised to 1.8% from +1.3%, extransportation was revised from 1.3% to 1.9%, and core capital goods from 0.7% to 1.6%. 

Nov personal income expected -0.3% declined -1.1%, spending expected -0.2% declined -0.4%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was unchanged on thoughts of +0.1%,  yr./yr. 1.1% with forecasts of 1.3%; core PCE 0.0% with estimates of +0.1$, yr./yr. +1.4%.

At 9:00 am ET, October FHFA house price index +1.5% with forecasts at +0.5%,  yr./yr. +10.2%.

At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened +158, NASDAQ -5, S&P +15. 10  yr. at 9:30 am 0.94% +2 bps. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 -11 bps from yesterday's close and -8 bps from 9:30 yesterday.

At 10:00 am ET, Nov new home sales were estimated at 989K, as reported 841K, and October revised from 99K to 945K. 

The U. of Michigan final Dec U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index  expected at 81.0 from 81.4, as released 80.7.

That is all of the data points now until next Monday. The rest of the day today should be thinly traded this afternoon. This data completes all scheduled news and events until next week. 

Nothing has changed for us. The 10 yr. note still holds a bearish bias, although rates have not increased. The 10  yr. is not declining, but equally not increasing. There's key resistance for the 10  yr. at 0.98% to 1.00%, while support levels are increasing, now at 0.86%. Until the 10  yr. closes below 0.86%, the bearish outlook will stay intact. Furthermore, the support level will continue to increase. By the end of next week, the level will climb to 0.90%. At the moment, the 10  yr. at 0.96% is just bps from 0.98% that so far has stopped any increase on two occasions; if it moves above 1.00%, expect increased selling. 

PRICES @ 10:10 AM ET

10 yr. note:              0.96% +4 bp

5 yr. note:                0.39% +3 bp

2 Yr. note:               0.13% +1 bp

30 yr. bond:             1.71% +6 bp

Libor Rates:            1 mo. 0.143%; 3 mo. 0.238%; 6 mo. 0.262%; 1  yr. 0.337% (12/22/20)

30 yr. FNMA 2.0:   @9:30 103.44 -11 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 yr. FNMA 2.5:   @9:30 105.13 -5 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 yr. GNMA 2.5:   @9:30 105.02 -2 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 yesterday)   

Dollar/Yuan:          $6.5398 -$0.0035

Dollar/Yen:            103.43 -0.21 yen

Dollar/Euro:          $1.2217 +$0.0056

Dollar Index:         90.21 -0.44

Gold:                      $1879.80 +$9.80

Crude Oil:             $47.69 +$0.67

DJIA:                     30,236 +221

NASDAQ:             12,794 -14

S&P 500:              3704 +16

About Richard Sardella                                                                                                                 

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years.  Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.                                                                                                                                     

About This Report And Disclosure Information                                                                                                                 

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup  only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.                                                                                                                                     

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on December 23rd, 2020 9:23 AM



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