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Daily Market Analysis December 22, 2021

December 22nd, 2021 9:03 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

Stock indexes rallied yesterday after two days of declines, this morning the indexes began a little lower although not much at 9 am ET; 10 yr. note at 1.47% unchanged and MBS prices generally unchanged.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week declined 0.6% from the previous week, purchase apps -3.3% while refinances increased 2.2%.

The final Q3 GDP was better than forecasts; +2.3% with expectations at +2.1% unchanged from the preliminary report last month; personal consumption expenditures expected +1.7% increased 2.0%.Old data but better than what was thought.

Pres. Biden still holding out that the Build Back Better bill will get passed. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer readied plans for the Senate to vote on the bill early next year despite Mr. Manchin’s opposition. Unless Manchin changes his strong opposition or many of the entitlements are eliminated no way the bill will pass. Meanwhile investors, the Fed and Wall Street are stabbing in the dark with 2022 forecasts.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +22, NASDAQ -14, S&P unchanged. The 10 at 9:30 am 1.45% -1 bps. FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +5 bps from yesterday and -6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am two data points. Dec consumer confidence expected at 110.7 increased to 115.8 and Nov was revised from 109.5 to 111.9. Nov existing home sales were less than forecasts at 6.46 mil against 6.51 mil but +1.9% from October, yr./yr. -2.9%.

Inflation, viruses, spending bills combining to keep rates stable. Improvement in the 10 yr. occurs when stock indexes get hit, when stocks rally interest rates increase although within a narrow range. Tomorrow a number of key economic releases, normally traders would be keyed up but not so much now with the markets absorbed with a virus. Under the surface equity markets were excessively overvalued, mostly driven by tech stocks, 30% of the increase in equities driven by five stocks.

PRICES @ 10 AM ET

10 yr. note: 1.46% unch

5 yr. note: 1.23% +1 bp

2 Yr. note: 0.68% +2 bp

30 yr. bond: 1.87% unch

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.104%; 3 mo. 0.216%; 6 mo. 0.325; 1 yr. 0.542% (12/21/21)

30 yr. FNMA 3.0: @9:30 am 103.56 +6 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 am 102.00 +5 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 am 102.23 +8 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3694 -$0.0027

Dollar/Yen: 114.28 +0.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1307 +$0.0021

Dollar Index: 96.22 -0.27

Gold: $1792.9 +$4.20

Bitcoin: 48,871 +300

Crude Oil: $71.30 +$0.18

DJIA: 35,538 +41

NASDAQ: 15,336 -5

S&P 500: 4652 +3

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on December 22nd, 2021 9:03 AM

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