CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis August 5, 2022

August 5th, 2022 9:46 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

The July employment report, another surprise. Non-farm jobs were expected at 250K with some guessing 200K; as reported jobs increased 528K. Private jobs expected at 220K increased 471K. The unemployment rate expected unchanged at 3.6% declined to 3.5%. Manufacturing jobs thought to be +15K increased 30K. Average hourly earnings were expected +0.3%, increased 0.5%, yr./yr. expected 5.0% increased 5.2%. The labor participation rate slipped to 62.1 from 62.2%. The 10 yr. note yield At 9 am ET increased 8 bps to 2.78%, the 2 yr. note jumped 12 bps, MBS prices fell 65 bps and stock indexes dropped. June non-farm jobs originally reported at 372K revised to 398K; June private jobs revised to 404K from 381K. This report is a shocker when compared to forecasts.

The economy has now recouped the number of jobs lost in the wake of the pandemic. Job gains were widespread, as employers in leisure and hospitality added jobs at a solid clip and payrolls grew in health care and professional and business services. The unemployment rate is at a 50 yr. low and matches the rate prior to the pandemic. Government payrolls rose 57,000 - most since May of last year; Restaurants and bars employment climbed 74,100 - largest in five months; Health care payrolls climbed almost 70,000 - biggest gain since August 2020.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -228, NASDAQ -162, S&P -40. 10 yr. note 2.81% +11 bps. FNMA 4.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -103 bp and -78 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

The shocking employment report has momentarily cemented the view the Fed is going to keep increasing rates at an aggressive manner. It’s been a debate in markets recently that the economy is slowing, and the Fed would ease off the big increases it has done over the last two FOMC meetings. Adding more evidence, on Tuesday the June JOLTS job openings dropped to 10.698 mil, the lowest in months and May revised to 11.303 mil from 11.254 mil. The rock-solid labor demand that tempers recession worries and suggests the Federal Reserve will press on with steep interest-rate hikes to thwart inflation.

There isn’t anything to add to this extremely strong employment data, if there is anyone that isn’t shocked, they are not telling the truth. Coming up next Wednesday, July CPI.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr note: 2.83% +13 bp

5 yr note: 2.95% +16 bp

2 Yr note: 3.19% +13 bp

30 yr bond: 3.06% +9 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 2.372%; 3 mo 2.863%; 6 mo 3.393%; 1 yr 3.879% (8/4/22)

30 yr FNMA 5.0: 101.89 -61 bp (-45 b p from 9:03 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 4.5: 100.63 -103 bp (-78 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 4.0: 99.33 -114 bp (-90 bp from 9:03 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.7608 +$0.0115

Dollar/Yen: 135.09 +2.15 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0170 -$0.0077

Dollar Index: 106.66 +0.96

Gold: $1789.40 -$17.40

Bitcoin: 23,074 +570

Crude Oil: $88.94 +$0.40

DJIA: 32,368 -50

NASDAQ: 12,634 -86

S&P 500: 4139 -13

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on August 5th, 2022 9:46 AM



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