CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis August 13, 2021

August 13th, 2021 8:49 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis

Overnight trading in US Treasuries in a 2 bp range, 1.36%/1.34%. MBS prices in early trade +6 bps from yesterday’s -8 bp decline. Its Mid-August, investors cruising on their 100 foot yachts, lending to quiet conditions and ahead of Jackson Hole in two weeks. Normally August is a quiet month with vacations headlining.

At 8:30 am ET July import and export prices; imports expected +0.6% as reported +0.3%, yr./yr. thought to be +10.7% was +10.2%. Export prices increased to 1.3% with estimates at 0.8%, yr./yr. +17.2% on forecasts of 16.6%. Not a market-mover but confirms the costs of exports increasing on supply chain disruptions that haven’t improved much since the pandemic.

Vacation for the Senate, now out until Sept 13th, the House is scheduled to cut short its vacation and return on August 23rd to continue work on the $3.5 trillion bill. Nancy Pelosi has been adamant that the House will not vote on the $550B infrastructure bill the Senate has passed until a bi-partisan agreement on the $3.5 trillion bill is reached in the House. Maybe Pelosi will have to re-think that plan; nine moderate House Democrats have signed a letter to Pelosi threatening to withhold support from a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint until the bipartisan infrastructure package is signed into law by the House. “It’s time to get shovels in the ground and people to work,” the Democrats wrote in the letter, dated Aug. 12. “We will not consider voting for a budget resolution until the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passes the House and is signed into law.”

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +90, another new record, NASDAQ +2, S&P +5, another new high. 10 yr. 1.34% -2 bps. FNMA 2.0 30 yr. coupon +11 bp from yesterday’s close and +9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps and +8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the mid-month U. of Michigan/Wells Fargo consumer sentiment index was expected at 81.4 from 81.2 in July; the index dropped significantly to 70.2.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr. note: 1.33% -3 bp

5 yr. note: 0.80% -2 bp

2 Yr. note: 0.22% -1 bp

30 yr. bond: 1.97% -5 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 0.095%; 3 mo. 0.124%; 6 mo. 0.157%; 1 yr. 0.239% (8/12/21)

30 yr. FNMA 2.0: @9:30 101.14 +11 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. FNMA 2.5: @9:30 103.69 +8 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr. GNMA 2.5: @9:30 103.30 +5 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.4790 unch

Dollar/Yen: 110.13 -0.31 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1770 +$0.0041

Dollar Index: 92.76 -0.28

Gold: $1765.90 +$14.10

Bitcoin: 46,615 +2,175

Crude Oil: $69.00 -$0.09

DJIA: 35,496 -3

NASDAQ: 14,815 -1

S&P 500: 4462 +2

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on August 13th, 2021 8:49 AM

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