CHM Blog

The 10 yr. note at 9 am ET 2.46% +6 bp, MBS price -34 bps. Since last Tuesday the 10 yield had declined to 2.32% from 2.50%, the consolidation is continuing, improvements though didn’t change the technical or fundamental outlook that rates are in bearish conditions. Inflation worries and rate-hike concerns got the best of Treasury holders as yields moved up across the curve. The 2s10s spread is no longer inverted, but remains close at just one basis point, and the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 98.93.

The Feb US trade deficit expected -$88.8B, as reported -$89.2B. The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects a fractured trade situation that remains broken by COVID-related problems that have snarled supply chains and fueled economic imbalances.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -40, NASDAQ -46, S&P -7. 10 yr. at 9:30 am 2.46% +5 bp. FNMA 4.0 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -31 bps and 27 bps lower than 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am March ISM non-manufacturing index, expected at 58.6 from 56.5 in Feb, as reported the index at 58.3

Three Fed officials speaking today; at 10 am Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed; at 11:05 am Lael Brainard, Fed governor, at 2 pm John Williams, NY Fed. Just in Lael Brainard in her prepared text said the Fed will move rapidly to increase rates and will have something to say about reducing the Fed balance sheet at the May 4th FOMC meeting, the reaction dropped the DJIA from +174 to unchanged, the NASDAQ and S&P also fell on her remarks.

PRICES @ 10:10 AM

10 yr note: 2.47% +6 bp

5 yr note: 2.61% +6 bp

2 Yr note: 2.47% +3 bp

30 yr bond: 2.53% +7 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.429%; 3 mo 0.969%; 6 mo 1.493%; 1 yr 2.201% (4/4/22)

30 yr FNMA 4.0: 101.56 -33 bp (-27 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr FNMA 4.5: 103.09 -44 bp (-46 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 4.0: 101.67 -31 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.3638 unch

Dollar/Yen: 122.80 +0.05

Dollar/Euro: $1.0974 unch

Dollar Index: 98.86 -0.14

Gold: $1946.10 +$12.10

Bitcoin: 46,493 +189

Crude Oil: $104.64 +$1.36

DJIA: 35,915 -6

NASDAQ: 14,353 -180

S&P 500: 4564 -18

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.