CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis April 28, 2022

April 28th, 2022 9:05 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
Today's Mortgage
Rate Forecast
Today's Potential
Rate Volatility

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

(by Sigma Research)
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -36 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims matched expectations at 180K which is a 5K drop from the prior week. The more closely watched 4 week moving average is now 179,750. Continuing Claims were 1.408M vs. est. of 1.403M

GDP: The preliminary 1st QTR GDP was much worse than expected and was in contractionary territory with a -1.4% vs. est. of +1.1% reading. Prices Paid shot up to 7.0% vs. est. of 5.9%. While the headlines appear to be weak, but there are some wonky factors due to supply chain issues. Actually, Consumer Spending is up 2.7% and Business Spending is up 9.2%. The reason that the GDP was forced negative was due to massive inventory builds (all those container ships that were finally offloaded count towards this) -34.5B and another -191.6B in Exports out of the U.S.

Treasury Sales: We have our 7 year Treasury note auction today at 1 pm ET.

Central Banks: The Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate at -0.1% but in a surprise move, announced that they would buy UNLIMITED amount of bonds, every day at a fixed rate.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are moving sideways on the mixed GDP data. Volatility has been moderate to high but will likely settle ahead of tomorrow's data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on April 28th, 2022 9:05 AM

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