CHM Blog

Daily Market Analysis April 19, 2023

April 19th, 2023 9:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568

Daily Market Analysis

At 8:30 am ET the 10 at 3.64% +6 bps, MBS prices started -20 bps. No economic news today. At 2 pm the Fed’s Beige Book will be released.

Recently the ECB implied more rate increases are on the way, today the Bank of England back in play after the UK inflation increased 10.1% in March; driven by the biggest increase in food costs in more than four decades. That follows strong wage growth reported Tuesday, adding to concerns that UK inflation is proving stickier than anticipated. Traders looking for 25 bps in May and another 25 bp in June. Fed officials continue to imply the FOMC will increase rates by 25 bps when it meets on May 3rd. Central banks were worrying over problems in the banking sector, that has ended, and central banks are intent to get back to fighting inflation.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -45, NASDAQ -84, S&P -18. 10 year 3.61% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -17 bps and -10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 5.5 coupon -15 bps and -4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

This afternoon at 2 pm The Fed’s Beige Book.

Yesterday Fed governor Michelle Bowman spoke about the potential of a US dollar digital dollar. Bowman noted “the risk that a [central bank digital currency] would provide not only a window into, but potentially an impediment to, the freedom Americans enjoy in choosing how money and resources are used and invested.” This morning bitcoin declined.

The 10 hit 3.64% this morning, our key resistance level; it held so far. The 10 has not traded above its 40-day moving average since mid Feb. Fundamentally markets expect 25 bp increase in the FF rate and is mostly discounted in current levels. If the 10 were to close over 3.64% rates would be in danger of a sizeable increase.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 3.60% +2 bp

5 year note: 3.71% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.25% +5 bp

30 year bond: 3.81% +2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 month 4.953%; 3 month 4.250%; 6 month 5.411%; 1 year 5.426% (4/18/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.34 -17 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.19 -16 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.31 -11 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8909 +$0.0149

Dollar/Yen: 134.44 +0.32 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0963 -$0.0011

Dollar Index: 101.86 +0.11

Gold: $2,003.70 -$16.00

Bitcoin: 29,332 -1,070

Crude Oil: $79.15 -$1.71

DJIA: 33,841 -132

NASDAQ: 12,082 -71

S&P 500: 4137 -19

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on April 19th, 2023 9:56 AM



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