November 6th, 2018 8:45 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The bond and mortgage markets are generally unchanged this morning and are likely to remain that way throughout the day. With the election on us now investors and traders won’t make any major moves until results are finalized. Polls got closer the last two days between Democrats and Republicans over who will win the House but most believe Democrats will take over while the Senate will stay with Republicans. Mid-term elections are about the presidency. Usually, the party in the White House loses votes at mid-term, so this one is really about President Trump.
Dems need 23 seats to change, some polls indicate anywhere from 20 to 40 seats will change. According to one poll, Dems are expected to win key governor races in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Boston Globe reported hackers targeted voter registration databases, election officials and networks across the country. Facebook blocked 85 Instagram and 30 Facebook accounts after a tip from the authorities. Almost all the Facebook pages were in French or Russian.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened up +14, the NASDAQ added +1, and the S&P remained unchanged. The 10-yr also remained unchanged at 3.20%.
At 10:00 am the September JOLTS job openings were expected at 7.110m from 7.136m originally released; as reported openings totaled 7.009m and August was revised to 7.293m.
At 1:00 pm the Treasury will auction a new $27B 10-yr note; important for the long end of the curve and mortgage rates. Tomorrow $19B of 30s will hit the auction block.
In addition to the election outcome being revealed tomorrow, the FOMC meeting will begin. It will be a key meeting as always, but this one should settle once and for all what the Fed will do at the Dec meeting; presently the consensus is a rate hike. What markets will look for is any waffling in the policy statement released on Thursday afternoon at the conclusion of the meeting. There will be no Powell press conference, and likely this meeting will be the last meeting that won’t have a press conference after the meeting. In the past, every other meeting was considered a meeting that the Fed might act; beginning next year, Jerome Powell will do a press conference after each meeting.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 yr. note: unch 3.20% unch
5 yr. note: -1/32 (3 bp) 3.03% unch
2 Yr. note: unch 2.91% unch
30 yr. bond: +3/32 (9 bp) 3.42% -1 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 2.316%; 3 mo. 2.589%; 6 mo. 2.835%; 1 yr. 3.116% (11/5/18)
30 yr. FNMA 4.5: @9:30 102.13 +2 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
15 yr. FNMA 4.0: @9:30 101.48 -2 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 yr. GNMA 4.5: @9:30 102.20 -5 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.9170 -$0.0088
Dollar/Yen: 113.28 +0.08 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1418 +$0.0010
Dollar Index: 96.25 -0.10
Gold: $1232.70 +$0.40
Crude Oil: $63.23 +0.15
DJIA: 25,528.94 +67.24
NASDAQ: 7386.75 +57.90
S&P 500: 2749.04 +10.73
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 27 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.